Most current situation analysis (AEST = UTC +10) 

AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

22nd April 2009

OVERVIEW: The focus of equatorial convection has shifted east from the Indian Ocean to the western and eastern Indonesian/Papua regions over the past week or so, a typical 'V' shape appears with the influence of 'shepherding' upper long waves from the northern and southern hemisphere, two primary alignments appear one extending from near 130 east to the central Pacific mainly bounded between 10 north and the equator then another trailing southeast from Papua across the northeast southwest Pacific dipping as far south as 23 south near the dateline. An interesting and near stationary extra tropical depression appears near Lord Howe island 163 east and near 29 south which shows evidence of a gradual warm core transition.

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER LOCATIONS: An extra tropical depression near 163 east and 29 south (Tasman Sea north) remains a persistent feature, the core of the system appears to have weakly transited towards a 'warm core' feature over the past 48 hours, the central core passed close to Lord Howe island generating 240mm rain and wind gusts to 146kph with higher gusts at exposed locations. The central core appears open on the northeast quadrant, a tight pressure gradient appears near the centre. Located over SST's near 21°C. This system remains poleward of the sub tropical jet in a rather weak shear environment.

Victorian Central Ranges Weather Discussion

......including Ballarat, Kilmore, Romsey, Kyneton, Tylden, Trentham, Woodend, Daylesford, Macedon, Gisborne and surrounds....

Specially presented weather discussion on the Victorian central ranges presented by AUSSKY which will include a prognosis on expected weather and a discussion of past weather.

Click here to go to the Central Ranges weather discussion

VICTORIAN ALPINE WEATHER DISCUSSION

29th June - 6th July 2009

OVERVIEW: A good week for weather systems coming up....A strong cold front affects the alpine areas on Tuesday then a serries of active troughs/cold fronts will pass over the mountain country for the remainder of the week to at least Saturday, each cold front will introduce progressively colder air. The first cold front Tuesday will generate plenty of winds and rain (snow above 1600M) then expect general snow showers tending to longer spells of snow on and off to at least Saturday, conditions become very cold from Friday to Sunday. A high pressure system moves in later Sunday and into next Monday bringing a couple of days of settled weather and very low overnight temperatures.

SNOW POTENTIAL: Lots of snow this week especially from later Tuesday to Saturday...expect accumulations over higher parts from 30 to 60cm..most snow above 1200M reaching sub alpine areas Saturday and early Sunday.

DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS

MONDAY 29/6/09: Areas of highland fog and patchy drizzle, one or two showers mainly afternoon, northerly winds becoming gusty later and overnight, drizzle increasing overnight. Wet snow flurries above 1631M.

TUESDAY 30/6/09: An awful day if you don't like fog and rain....Areas of fog/drizzle tending rain and sleet throughout with some heavy falls, squally north winds tending northwest later....wet snow above 1600M early gradually lowering to nearer 1400M later in the day, snow becoming heavy at times about the higher ridges, strong wind chill at higher levels, ice gradually developing on higher roads through the day. MIN TEMPS 0 to +2°C MAX TEMPS 1 to 3°C. lowering to nearer -2 to 0°C later in the day.

WEDNESDAY 1/7/09: Areas of highland fog and squally northwest winds, showers frequent at times,local thunder a risk,  snow above 1255M with some heavy falls, local hail/graupel and freezing drizzle above 1300M. Strong wind chill at higher levels, ice on highland roads. MIN TEMPS  -3 to -1°C MAX TEMPS -1 to 0°C

THURSDAY 2/7/09: Cloudy with general highland mist, showers occasionally frequent with hail and thunder a risk, snow above 1200M occasionally heavy, icy roads and strong wind chill with squally northwest or west winds. MIN TEMPS -4 to -2°C MAX TEMPS -2 to 0°C.

FRIDAY 3/7/09: Cloudy with snow showers occasionally frequent, local hail and graupel, freezing drizzle, icy roads. Strong wind chill with squally northwest or southwest winds. MIN TEMPS -5 to -3°C MAX  TEMPS -3 to -1°C.

SATURDAY 4/7/09: Cloudy with snow showers.freezing drizzle/hail, squally southwest/west winds, high wind chill. Icy roads, snow and sleet to sub alpine levels a risk at times. MIN TEMPS -6 to -4°C MAX TEMPS -5 to -2°C.

SUNDAY 5/7/09: Areas of highland mist and patchy freezing drizzle, scattered snow showers mainly southern areas, fresh and occasionally gusty southwest/south winds, high wind chill, icy roads, severe frosts overnight and morning. MIN TEMPS -8 to -6°C MAX TEMPS -3 to -1°C.

MONDAY 6/7/09: Widespread frosts overnight and morning persisting in some locations through the day, a few brief flurries in the far south, southeast/south winds occasionally fresh about the peaks but moderating, icy roads. MIN TEMPS -10 to -7°C MAX TEMPS -2 to 0°C.

AUSTRALIAN CONVECTIVE WEATHER DISCUSSION

2nd April 2009

Hi all storm lovers...the AUSSKY convective outlook will return in late September or early October 2009 - thanks to all storm watchers who  read this outlook, a brief summary will appear in regards to Australian storm activity in Austrop weather discussion which will be expanded to cover the eastern hemisphere for winter 2009....

500hPa chart: The contours are the 18,500' (500 hPa) height field which indicates air flow at that level as well as the overall thickness of the atmosphere between the surface and the 500hPa pressure. The 540 line is marked in black. Updated daily at 0Z & 12Z.

Upper Analysis Charts - 850hPa

850hPa chart: This analysis chart provides temperatures at 1500m ASL (850hPa) across the Australian region. The coldest air is shown from purple (in the south) through blue and green, and then warmer air is shown in yellow and oranges, and then purple again over the continent (as the hottest). Updated twice a day showing conditions at 0Z & 12Z.

Global Satellite Image

Lighting Detection - Australia

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Thanks to The Bureau of Meteorology, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, James Cook University, Robin Land, CSIRO, LF*EM Research, EUMETSAT, Dundee University, IGES, University of Otago, SSEC Wisconsin and Unisys for allowing use of the images.

AusSnow will run from April to October 2008...We endeavour to fine tune these outlooks and provide actual expected conditions and update them in real time if possible.

AusStorm is a division of AUSSKY, along with Austrop, AusSnow and Melbourne Storm Chasers.