Specially presented weather discussion on the central ranges presented by Australian Sky & Weather which will include a prognosis on expected weather and a discussion of past weather
Trentham Online Weather Station (700m between Woodend & Daylesford)
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VICTORIAN CENTRAL RANGES WEATHER UPDATE (INCLUDING BLACKWOOD !).. 7th - 14th July, 2008 (Update: 1400HRS 7/7/08) OVERVIEW: A rather active week for the central Ranges this week with plenty of weather variations and appears plenty of rain. Today a trough moves across Victoria with a small low passing close to the central ranges overnight, this system will recede southeast of Victoria through Tuesday allowing a weakish high pressure ridge to dribble through the central Ranges Wednesday...However a series of active cold fronts will pounce onto the central hills through Thursday and Friday bringing more rain and strong winds also introducing much colder air later Thursday. A high pressure moves in for the weekend with cold nights, the next trough appears early next week with more rain and wind.... FROST POTENTIAL: Frost potential remains rather low this week due to persistent cloud and wind although early Wednesday may see a few frost patches in sheltered areas. A high pressure system approaches this weekend with clearer conditions and a marked increase in frost potential Sat and Sunday mornings. SNOW AND ICE: A cold air mass arrives across the central ranges Thursday and Friday being dragged up from the deep southern Ocean by a vigorous trough/cold front, an increasing risk of sleet/snow/hail through Thursday and overnight into Friday especially over the higher areas of the central hills. DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS MONDAY 7/7/08...Cloudy with showers/drizzle tending to rain periods at times, local moderate or heavy falls especially northern slopes, chance of thunder, chance of hail/sleet overnight, risk of snow on the higher peaks.moderate northeast or north winds becoming lighter later...MAX TEMPS 7 to 9°C. TUESDAY 8/7/08...Cloudy with showers and drizzle occasionally prolonged, patchy hill mist, light winds tending northwest or southwest, a few sunny intervals later. MIN TEMPS 3 to 5°C MAX TEMPS 6 to 8°C WEDNESDAY 9/7/08...Cloudy areas with local showers or drizzle, moderate southwest or northwest winds, becoming lighter towards evening but strengthening north/northwest winds overnight into Thursday morning, risk of light early frost in sheltered areas. MIN TEMPS 1 to 4°C MAX TEMPS 7 to 9°C. THURSDAY 10/7/08...Strong northwest winds, a very cold day with areas of hill mist and drizzle tending to frequent showers with more prolonged periods of rain or drizzle at times, a colder west or southwest change through the day with some sleet or hail developing, risk of snow at night and into early Friday especially higher areas, risk of road ice at higher locations overnight Thursday into early Friday. MIN TEMPS 2 to 4°C MAX TEMPS 5 to 7°C lowering to near 0 to 3°C later in the day. FRIDAY 11/7/08...Very cold and cloudy with showers and strong west/southwest winds tending more southwesterly through the day, local hail and sleet with snow showers a risk in the morning, areas of hill mist at times, risk of road ice at higher locations mainly morning. MIN TEMPS -1 to +2°C MAX TEMPS 4 to 6°C. SATURDAY 12/7/08...Areas of early mist or drizzle and a few showers, local early frost in sheltered areas especially northern slopes, patchy road ice early at higher elevations a risk, then partly cloudy with southwest winds becoming lighter towards evening. MIN TEMPS 0 to +2°C MAX TEMPS 6 to 9°C. SUNDAY 13/7/08...Areas of early frost locally severe then a partly cloudy day with light winds tending north/northwest, a few sunny breaks through the day. MIN TEMPS -4 to -2°C MAX TEMPS 7 to 10°C. MONDAY 14/7/08...Freshening north winds and areas of hill mist/drizzle tending to showers later, a cold day generally MIN TEMPS 1 to 3°C MAX TEMPS 6 to 8°C. ...regards from AUSSKY ..... watch for updates... |
SUMMARY OF RECENT RAINFALL
RAINFALL DATA |
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Climate of the Victorian Central Ranges The Central Ranges area extends from Ballarat in the west to Kilmore in the east and from Kyneton in the north to Gisborne in the south generally incorporating the Central Ranges above 400m. The area is normally referred to in the official forecasts as the North Central, however AUSSKY wishes to present a specialised experimental forecast for the areas previously outlined where climatic conditions can be significantly different from northern parts of the formal North Central region. During winter months, the Central Ranges are susceptible to frost, ice and snow, often mixed with fog, while in summer months, considerable variation can occur in temperature between the southern slopes and the northern slopes separated by the ridgeline. Another significant feature of the region are the local phenomena of strong ridge winds, especially in summer, associated with south and southeasterly low level winds. In respect to elevation, a good deal of the Central Ranges are in excess of 600m, between Ballarat and Woodend, with the highest points in this area approaching 900m south of Trentham and Bullarto. Another region of significant height is found at Mt Macedon, where elevations exceed 950m with Camels Hump rising to 1013m. RAINFALL: The entire region exhibits a bias to winter maximum associated with orographic forcing of troughs and fronts during that season. Minimum amounts of rainfall occur in the summer months, particularly in January to March. Overall, rainfall amounts range from near 700mm on the western margins, to reach near 1300mm at Blue Mountain south of Trentham. East of the Trentham Rise, annual rainfall declines to reach near 850mm at Woodend and approaching 700mm at Kilmore. The Mt Macedon Ranges exert a local influence with the summit approaching 1000mm, and Mt Towrong approaching 1200mm annually. To the north of the ridge, rainfall amounts decline rather rapidly, with 750mm average at Kyneton declining to 575mm at Redesdale only 30 or so km to the northeast. During wintertime there can be prolonged periods of fog and drizzle on and north of the main ridge with cloud rapidly breaking to the south. During the summer months, persistent south or southeasterly winds bring drizzle and fog to the southern slopes and ridgetops especially at night and early morning. In the summer period cloud rapidly breaks to the north of the ridge to reveal fine and clear weather. SNOWFALLS: The entire region is susceptible to occasional light snowfalls in winter, mainly between the months of May and September. Most falls are generally light and rather insignificant, and are of a snowshower nature. Most snowfalls are associated with cold Southern Maritime or modified Polar airmasses. Heavier falls are occasionally experienced usually every 2 - 5 years when the entire region may be covered to a depth of between 2 and 5cm. At Trentham (elevation 700m), a 40 year mean average occurrence is about 4 snow days per year, mainly occurring in July and August. At higher altitudes, snowfall occurrences increase rapidly above 900m. At Mt Macedon (1003m), snowfalls can be recorded on 15-20 days a year with snow lying occurring on 10-15 days a year. It is estimated that 1 annual snow day occurs near 500m elevation. FROST:The entire region is susceptible to severe frost, generally between the months of May and September. Light frosts have been recorded in all months. The period of minimum frost incidence occurs between January and March. Temperatures will approach -5°C on several occasions each winter, but there can be significant variation over short distance in the severity of frost. Extreme minimums have been near -10°C - Mt Macedon with -9°C and Trentham - 7.5°C. A feature of the region in winter is the occasional appearance of Black Ice, mainly occurring at elevations above 500m. The occurrence of black ice can cause major traffic disruption across the region. THUNDERSTORMS: A 40 year record taken at Trentham (24 hour), indicates a mean annual average there of 20 thunderdays. This is a reasonable representation of the Central Ranges. Annual thunderday incidence is extremely variable from year to year. Severe thunderstorms with hail, strong winds occur annually, mainly between September and March. Tornadoes have been reported on rare occasions. Some of Australia's most severe tornadic activity has occurred on the northern slopes of the Central Ranges. |
Thanks to The Bureau of Meteorology, SSEC Wisconsin and the CSIRO, for allowing use of the images and information. |
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